Handicapping the '08 Race

Posted by Seth Kramer on Wednesday, February 14th 2007 at 1:04am


I thought in honor of Mitt Romney's announcement today, and Barack Obama's announcement Saturday, and the subsequent comment-bait (thanks Ben) I'd do an early handicap to the White House race.

By my count the GOP has the following people running: Rudy Giuliani (kind of official), John McCain, Mitt Romney, Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee, Tom Tancredo, John Cox, Sam Brownback, and maybe Chuck Hagel and Newt Gingrich.

And the Dems have: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilack, Mike Gravel and maybe Wes Clark or Al Gore.

I think the only politico not running for President is this guy.



Looking at the macro level, If you're a Republican you've got a wide selection of old, up-tight, white guys from which to pick. And if you're a Democrat you've got a varied selection of potential firsts from which to choose, first potential woman President, first potential black President, first potential Hispanic President, first potential President to have Dutch Elm's Disease.

Conventional wisdom says that the GOP doesn't have a strong candidate, but I think the Democrats have more to worry about. The "front-runner" at this stage is nonsense as most people have no idea what the candidate stands for, and only poll based upon name recognition.

McCain, who is a dyed-in-the-wool Republican, but thanks to his media persona many Republicans are leery of voting for him. Soon the gloves will come off now that he's running for President, and I think you'll see his polling drop further. He's been in the Senate for 20 years. Each of those votes is a bullet, and Senators are notoriously hard to elect (see Kerry-2004, Dole-1996, Mondale-1984, etc.)

Giuliani would be almost unstoppable, but the evangelicals--who have the GOP by the nuts--are unlikely to vote for a guy who's been married thrice, is pro-choice, pro-gay rights and has been known to dress in drag. Socially, I'd vote for this guy if he had some foreign policy experience. But he was a fucking mayor. He might as well be Post Master General. He has no relevant political experience. He's worse than Obama. Lastly, Giuliani is behaving like he did when he was flirting with running for Senate against Hillary Clinton in 2000. He fiddle farted around and eventually said he wasn't running. Everyone thinks he's running, but he hasn't made it officially official.

Romney is a Mormon. That's not going to go over well with the evangelicals, but he could pave over that. His bigger problem is that in '94 he ran for the Senate against Ted Kennedy, and at that time he vowed to be a "stronger advocate for gay rights than Ted Kennedy". Seriously, that quote right there might as well read "Romney swears to fellate every homo in Massachusetts". Strangely I think he has promise

Huckabee got an endorsement from none other than Tom Delay the other day. Better than a kick in the ass...but not much. He's probably going to be something of a come from behind candidate.

Hunter is a Congressman from California. The last time a congressman was elected President was James A. Garfield in 1880, who was then shot 6 months later. I think this guy's running for Vice, and he isn't likely to get that either.

Thompson is the former Wisconsin guv, and Bush administration Secretary of Health and Human Services. I know, I know. I had you at "Bush". He's a moderate, and possible Veep.

Tancredo is a one-issue candidate. All immigration, all the time. He's like pornography for Lou Dobbs.

Cox WHO?

Brownback is hoovering up the evangelical vote, but he's unlikely to have any appeal with the rest of the GOP power-base, especially the pro-business guys with the money. Possible Veep.

Hagel could be interesting. He'd be the only seriously anti-war GOP candidate. It could take the Iraq issue off the table for '08. Which would deal a serious blow to the Democrats.

Gingrich is the Democrats' wet dream. A thrice married guy with some ethical issues who once delivered divorce papers to his wife while she was in the hospital recovering from cancer. You stay classy, Newt.

Obviously somebody's got to win. If I had to place bets it's either McCain or Huckabee it all depends on how deep the anti-McCain feeling is in the party. I think McCain has all the money right now so I'm inclined to say he stays on top. Still Giuliani would be almost impossible to beat despite his thin resume. He comes with all the social issues that Democrats love, and all the authoritarianism that the GOP likes.

As for the Democrats:

Clinton has name recognition, but her husband hurts her. How? Watch Bill speak. Then watch Hillary speak. Whatever you may think of Bill, he could sell ketchup popsicles to a woman in white gloves. Hillary is at best a mediocre speaker. She pisses off all the right-wing reactionaries on two grounds, (1) she's a Clinton, and (2) she's a woman and should know to stay in the kitchen, and she pisses off the lefties because she won't admit that the whole idea of going to war in Iraq was a bad one. She keeps playing that "if I knew then what I know now" bullshit. Nobody buys it. She's got to look tough on defense because she's both a woman, and a Democrat. Many of us don't think she can win a general election.

Obama has been in the Senate all of 2 years. Until New Jersey replaced John Corzine and the 110th Congress was sworn in, Obama was 100th in tenure rank. Dead last. Obama has a rock-star appeal by being an empty glass; You can fill him with whatever you want. That may sound good, but very soon he's going to need to deliver some actual content. He's got the support of plenty of Democrats, but few with actual money, which will be critical for this front-loaded primary season, and many in the black community think he's not black enough. Which is to say he doesn't come with a slavery pedigree. Lastly, the only person Obama has beaten for state-wide office is Alan Keyes. Alan Fucking Keyes. Nobody takes Alan Keyes seriously. In 1996 he wasn't even invited to the GOP candidates debate. The only things Obama has going for him is being anti-war from the beginning, and not being Hillary Clinton.

Edwards has to show he's learned something since 2000. I've listened to him on a couple of shows on NPR and watched him on Meet the Press. He's showing more promise that he did in 2004, but I don't know how he raises enough money to compete with Obama and Clinton.

Biden is an non-stop talking idiot who has no business running for President. Expect him to quit before the first debate.

Dodd is relatively useless. He's a long-serving Senator (See McCain). He's working the anti-war angle pretty hard, and I think it's going to paint him as just to the left of Che Guevara.

Kucinich Ohio congressman. (see Duncan Hunter, also Che Guevara)

Richardson is a rare case, a governor with foreign policy experience coming out his ears. Richardson was a former UN Ambassador, and has negociated treaties in Sudan, North Korea, etc. I don't see how he gets any money, but he would be one of the better choices for the Dems. Unfortunately being Hispanic no matter what he says it'll be portrayed by the GOP as open the borders, and lets all have a siesta. Possible Veep to lend some foreign policy credibility to an Obama or Edwards.

Vilsack is pretty much an unknown. He's the former Governor of Iowa. Being from Iowa he's screwed. It means he has to win the Iowa caucus, which he most likely won't. And even if he does, everyone will say "Of course he won Iowa. He's their freakin' Governor for crying out loud."

Gravel former Alaskan governor. Has been out of politics for 20 years. (See: Cox)

Clark is a former general who has experience leading NATO forces, and I think he'd be a great candidate. He's got a few problems though. He's pretty old (63), and he may be doing what he did in '04. Getting into the campaign too late.

Gore is probably not even running. He's almost said as much in a number of interviews, but many are waiting to see him at the Oscars, thinking he may use the new found media coverage to springboard a campaign. Unlikely since he'd just get painted as a "Hollywood liberal" and the media's never been kind to him before I don't know why he'd believe they'd be friendly now.

Who's likely to win the Democratic nod? Hillary's got former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe (master fund-raiser) and money is the key to this primary process. If she wins I think the Dems are sunk. If the Democratic party puts forward another Kerry, another candidate even people like me have to hold our nose and vote for, there will be a big problem. Because as of now I will not vote for Hillary. I'm a little wishy-washy on Edwards, but I think he has the edge as the not-Hillary candidate, but my heart belongs to Richardson.

Either way, the loosing losing candidate will recieve a consolation prize from SethKramer.com:



I'm feeling cold and wet