If the buzzwords for Nevada are indeed labor and rural, then Edwards will win. These are precisely the constituencies that he appeals to most. Look at how the unions are supporting him.

For me, Edwards is the only candidate that is willing and ABLE to stand up to corporate power. He's brilliant - and tough as nails. Clinton and Obama have signalled that they will do business as usual. Not Edwards. That's why the media have been unrelenting in their efforts to trivialize and neutralize him. But he's doing an endrun around them in Iowa, and can in other states if he has the money. Because of his acceptance of federal matching funds, funding is perceived as his major problem. I think it's one that can be overcome, though.

Several polls show Obama gaining some major support, and a couple of candidates have told their supporters if they don't make the cutoff (15%) to back Obama. I had figured they would break for Edwards. It's looking more like my dream scenario is coming true. Hopefully Obama will get some traction out of Iowa.

@Peggy Karp: I can respect the Edwards people, he's got some good ideas, but when he committed to public financing he became a candidate who couldn't win. There's no way public finance money can sustain a Swift Boat campaign.

Well it looks like Obama took Iowa, and took it big (+7.6% over Edwards, +8% over Clinton). Biden and Dodd are bowing out. If they endorse a non-Clinton candidate there could be some more movement in time for New Hampshire. Despite his "clean, articulate, and bright" gaffe, I think Biden likes Obama. They both serve on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and I wouldn't be surprised to see him endorse Obama. Not sure about Dodd. Possible Clinton endorsement, can see him endorsing Edwards.

Speaking of, this is a major blow to Edwards. He's been camped out here for a few years, and it's the only state he really invested himself in. He may have a chance in Nevada, and South Carolina is less likely, but I don't see him going anywhere shy of a total Clinton and/or Obama meltdown. If he doesn't get out of the race before Feb. 5th he's going to be a spoiler who gives Clinton the nomination.

Never have I been so pleased to be wrong.

Also, I've got to figure Richardson is not long for this race.

I wasn't paying very close attention to the Iowa caucus... Now, if I'm not mistaken, did Hillary spend less time campaigning in Iowa? Either way, Obama has won an important victory but still has to wrench the other states away from Edwards/Hillary. Hillary still has a decided advantage: old people. Edwards has a chance, and I stress the word chance, but it's unlikely he'll win based on his lukewarm platforms on issues other than poverty. No clue why
Richardson is sticking around, I don't think he needs to stay on the campaign trail to win VP does he? If Huckabee wins, the Republicans are screwed, nothing like pardoning a convicted rapist just because one of his victims was related to Bill Clinton. Guess what he did right after he was pardoned? Maybe I'm biased, but will any Republican stand a chance if they stick to a stay-in-Iraq platform?

There was a memo that came up floating the idea of skipping Iowa. After a LOT of outcry from the Iowa peeps she decided she'd fight there. So originally she wasn't terribly committed to Iowa, but in the end she'd spent more than 7 million in tele ads.

No question on the old people. I'm glad Obama can mobilize young voters, but nationally speaking we're the most apathetic class of voter.

Richardson has no requirement to stay in the race. He may think he's got a better chance later (probably thinks he can get double digits in Nevada since he's from New Mexico). He'd be a good Veep choice for Clinton. Can't see Edwards picking him but perhaps. Obama's people would probably tell him not to push the envelope too much with a potential black president and Mexican-American Vice. An Edwards/Obama or Obama/Edwards ticket isn't out of the question.

Obama did remarkably well with independants (41% to Clinton's 17%). NH is chock-a-block with independants. He's gonna do well there too. Also demonstrating that a black guy can play in uberwhite Iowa he may benefit in SC too. His victory speech made me think Bobby Kennedy.

The current numbers suggest none of the GOP beats a Dem in '08 right now. But November is a long way off. IMHO 9iu11ani (maybe McCain, but I doubt it) is the only threat to a Dem in the White House come Jan. 20 2009. But the evangelicals in the GOP base are going to have to swallow the bitter pill to get that to happen, and they'd have to do it gleefully to get the kind of turnout necessary to win the swing states. There may not be enough God, gays, and guns to do it even then.

At least in the primaries the GOP has to flog the stay-in-Iraq platform. Their base loves it. As a result of the super-polarization strategy employed by Rove, et. al their base is moving rapidly to the right. They're chasing the moderates out of the party (witness Fmr. NJ Gov. Christie Todd Whitman, NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, even to a certain extent John McCain). It's remarkable that Richard Nixon would be too liberal for this party.

Can't wait 'til NH.

Peggy:
Edwards is a joke. He's laughable. He's sleazier than Bill. He is so transparaent it's embarrassing.