Super Tuesday Prognostications
Posted by Seth Kramer on Tuesday, February 5th 2008 at 12:14am
"Not only are we going to New Hampshire ... we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and we're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan. And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House, Yeeeeeaaaaaargh!"
-Gov. Howard Dean
-Gov. Howard Dean
Super Tuesday
Below are my predictions for the uberPrimary tomorrow. The vagaries of the proportional representation along congressional district lines, the uncertainty of caucuses, and the already proven inability of polling data to indicate what's going on aside this is how I see it going down. Bear in mind that it's entirely possible that a candidate can lose the state popular vote, but win or tie the delegate race (see also Nevada, New Hampshire). That said, I didn't try to add that dynamic to my estimates. I will not just be wrong. I will be WILDLY wrong, but I wanted to get my guesses down so everyone can mock me when I'm inevitably off by a factor of 10. So without further ado...
Delegate splits are (Obama/Clinton)
Alabama (60 delegates) - Most recent polls show Clinton winning this, but Obama has the edge with the black vote. I expect a high turn out and an Obama victory. (33/27)
Alaska (18 delegates) - Tough call, it's a caucus, and nobody bothers to poll in the great white tundra that is Alaska. Judges say, "Who cares?" I'd give the edge to Obama, he seems to do well in caucuses. (11/7)
American Samoa (9 delegates) - It's a caucus, and a diverse state. Obama victory (5/4)
Arizona (67 delegates) - Tossup. Tossups favor the national leader. Clinton (30/37)
Arkansas (47 delegates) - Clinton's home state. Clinton. (20/27)
California (441 delegates) - Clinton's had the edge, but it's a tossup in recent polls. If Obama won this it'd be an upset. I don't expect an upset. Clinton by a nose. (211/230)
Colorado (71 delegates) – Tossup, but it has been edging toward Obama. (37/34)
Connecticut (60 delegates) - New York Neighbor. Clinton should win this. But Obama's giving her a run for her money. (27/33)
Democrats Abroad Global Primary (11 delegates) - The first internet primary. Seems like Obama gets a lot of fawning coverage (more so than even in the US) in the foreign media. Obama (7/4)
Delaware (23 delegates) - Close race, and both candidates are spending a lot of time here for some strange reason. It's barely worth the time. Clinton. (10/13)
Georgia (103 delegates) - Strong black vote. Obama (58/45).
Idaho (23 delegates) - Caucus favors Obama. Also he has the support of the former governor Cecil Andrus. (13/10)
Illinois (185 delegates) - Obama's home state. Expect a Clinton ass-kicking. (133/52)
Kansas (41 delegates) - Caucus, Obama endorsed by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Obama (23/18)
Massachusetts (121 delegates) - Clinton type state, but the Kennedy endorsements help a lot. Clinton wins anyway (57/64)
Minnesota (88 delegates) - Caucus, Obama is being played up as the reincarnation of former Senator Paul Wellstone, who tragically died in a plane crash. (47/41)
Missouri (88 delegates) - Clinton has an edge in the polls. Obama has the endorsement of Claire McCaskill. Should be a good bellwether race. Clinton wins. (43/45)
New Jersey (127 delegates) - Client state of New York. Clinton should win handily. (53/74)
New Mexico (38 delegates) - Clinton (17/21)
New York (281 delegates) - Clinton's other home state. (122/159)
North Dakota (21 delegates) - Caucus, Obama has the support of a lot of the state legislature. Obama (12/9)
Oklahoma (47 delegates) - Clinton has the endorsement of the former Democratic governor David Walters, but Obama does well in rural states. Still I expect a Clinton victory. (21/26)
Tennessee (85 delegates) - Clinton has a clear edge in the polling here. (40/45)
Utah (29 delegates) - Rural, which gives an edge to Obama. Kind of a tossup. I'll say Clinton (23/26) [Update: I meant (13/16)]
Net Result in my scenario? Obama gets 1053 delegates, Clinton 1051. My gut tells me that Clinton will collect more delegates than Obama, but that's how my math works out. We'll see.
Given those results, there's no clear winner of the day, and of course the primaries continue. The states after Super Tuesday?
Starting Saturday, Louisiana (large black population, though less so after Katrina), Nebraska (Where Obama is endorsed by Ben Nelson, a popular Democratic Senator), Washington (No idea, probably Clinton by 5%), Virgin Islands (Obama).
Then a caucus in Maine in Sunday. Clinton by about 7%.
Then Tuesday, DC (OBAMA! Huge black population), Virginia (Obama endorsed by Sen. Jim Webb), Maryland (large black population, Obama).
The following Tuesday, Hawai'i (Obama's birth state, big win), Wisconsin (tossup). After that we're into March.
My point? If Obama can hold on by his fingernails through Super Tuesday, he should clean up in delegates the rest of the month.
We'll see. I hope to be live blogging the results from my hotel.
Oh and if your curious to know who wins the Republican primary, it's John McCain. Rush Limbaugh can piss and moan all he wants, but that's who they're getting. It'll be interesting to see if they knuckle under and take him, or if they tear their own party apart because they can't find anyone of sufficient ideological purity.
I'm feeling sleepy
Obama Speech Music video: Yes We Can

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