Mental Anguish
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Super Tuesday Prognostications

Posted by Seth Kramer on Tuesday, February 5th 2008 at 12:14am

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"Not only are we going to New Hampshire ... we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and we're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan. And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House, Yeeeeeaaaaaargh!"
-Gov. Howard Dean


Super Tuesday

Below are my predictions for the uberPrimary tomorrow. The vagaries of the proportional representation along congressional district lines, the uncertainty of caucuses, and the already proven inability of polling data to indicate what's going on aside this is how I see it going down. Bear in mind that it's entirely possible that a candidate can lose the state popular vote, but win or tie the delegate race (see also Nevada, New Hampshire). That said, I didn't try to add that dynamic to my estimates. I will not just be wrong. I will be WILDLY wrong, but I wanted to get my guesses down so everyone can mock me when I'm inevitably off by a factor of 10. So without further ado...

Delegate splits are (Obama/Clinton)

Alabama (60 delegates) - Most recent polls show Clinton winning this, but Obama has the edge with the black vote. I expect a high turn out and an Obama victory. (33/27)

Alaska (18 delegates) - Tough call, it's a caucus, and nobody bothers to poll in the great white tundra that is Alaska. Judges say, "Who cares?" I'd give the edge to Obama, he seems to do well in caucuses. (11/7)

American Samoa (9 delegates) - It's a caucus, and a diverse state. Obama victory (5/4)

Arizona (67 delegates) - Tossup. Tossups favor the national leader. Clinton (30/37)

Arkansas (47 delegates) - Clinton's home state. Clinton. (20/27)

California (441 delegates) - Clinton's had the edge, but it's a tossup in recent polls. If Obama won this it'd be an upset. I don't expect an upset. Clinton by a nose. (211/230)

Colorado (71 delegates) – Tossup, but it has been edging toward Obama. (37/34)

Connecticut (60 delegates) - New York Neighbor. Clinton should win this. But Obama's giving her a run for her money. (27/33)

Democrats Abroad Global Primary (11 delegates) - The first internet primary. Seems like Obama gets a lot of fawning coverage (more so than even in the US) in the foreign media. Obama (7/4)

Delaware (23 delegates) - Close race, and both candidates are spending a lot of time here for some strange reason. It's barely worth the time. Clinton. (10/13)

Georgia (103 delegates) - Strong black vote. Obama (58/45).

Idaho (23 delegates) - Caucus favors Obama. Also he has the support of the former governor Cecil Andrus. (13/10)

Illinois (185 delegates) - Obama's home state. Expect a Clinton ass-kicking. (133/52)

Kansas (41 delegates) - Caucus, Obama endorsed by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Obama (23/18)

Massachusetts (121 delegates) - Clinton type state, but the Kennedy endorsements help a lot. Clinton wins anyway (57/64)

Minnesota (88 delegates) - Caucus, Obama is being played up as the reincarnation of former Senator Paul Wellstone, who tragically died in a plane crash. (47/41)

Missouri (88 delegates) - Clinton has an edge in the polls. Obama has the endorsement of Claire McCaskill. Should be a good bellwether race. Clinton wins. (43/45)

New Jersey (127 delegates) - Client state of New York. Clinton should win handily. (53/74)

New Mexico (38 delegates) - Clinton (17/21)

New York (281 delegates) - Clinton's other home state. (122/159)

North Dakota (21 delegates) - Caucus, Obama has the support of a lot of the state legislature. Obama (12/9)

Oklahoma (47 delegates) - Clinton has the endorsement of the former Democratic governor David Walters, but Obama does well in rural states. Still I expect a Clinton victory. (21/26)

Tennessee (85 delegates) - Clinton has a clear edge in the polling here. (40/45)

Utah (29 delegates) - Rural, which gives an edge to Obama. Kind of a tossup. I'll say Clinton (23/26) [Update: I meant (13/16)]

Net Result in my scenario? Obama gets 1053 delegates, Clinton 1051. My gut tells me that Clinton will collect more delegates than Obama, but that's how my math works out. We'll see.

Given those results, there's no clear winner of the day, and of course the primaries continue. The states after Super Tuesday?

Starting Saturday, Louisiana (large black population, though less so after Katrina), Nebraska (Where Obama is endorsed by Ben Nelson, a popular Democratic Senator), Washington (No idea, probably Clinton by 5%), Virgin Islands (Obama).

Then a caucus in Maine in Sunday. Clinton by about 7%.

Then Tuesday, DC (OBAMA! Huge black population), Virginia (Obama endorsed by Sen. Jim Webb), Maryland (large black population, Obama).

The following Tuesday, Hawai'i (Obama's birth state, big win), Wisconsin (tossup). After that we're into March.

My point? If Obama can hold on by his fingernails through Super Tuesday, he should clean up in delegates the rest of the month.

We'll see. I hope to be live blogging the results from my hotel.

Oh and if your curious to know who wins the Republican primary, it's John McCain. Rush Limbaugh can piss and moan all he wants, but that's who they're getting. It'll be interesting to see if they knuckle under and take him, or if they tear their own party apart because they can't find anyone of sufficient ideological purity.

I'm feeling sleepy
Obama Speech Music video: Yes We Can

Comments


I get the impression if General Jack Ripper (the guy that started the war in Dr. Strangelove) would be Limbaughs/O'Rielys perfect candidate.

a common enemy [02.05.2008 05:20:05]

I can absolutely picture an O'Reilly rant about fluoridation being a commie conspiracy.

Seth Kramer [02.05.2008 08:22:33]

Well it's just about 1AM and I think I'm going to bed. Unfortunately my internet connection in the hotel has been crap ($10/day if you can believe that), don't stay at a Sheraton.

Anyway as of now Obama has won Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Deleware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, and Utah (so if you're playing at home that's 3 wrong)

Clinton has won Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Tennesee.

New Mexico has only reported 1% and it's likely to take forever to get accurate vote totals.

Of note for Obama the bellwhether state (Missouri), The oddly competitive state (Delaware), and one in Clinton's backyard she was expected to win Connecticut. And he's won many more states than her.

Of note for Clinton, obviously the states she's won are quite populous (New York, New Jersey, California, Massachusetts, etc.) They are also, unsurprisingly, the most liberal.

My screw ups? I used the delegate numbers including the super delegates apparently. So I'll prorate them and give you totals on how wrong I was. Also I probably should have mentioned that the Democrats abroad internet primary spans several days.

Seth Kramer [02.06.2008 01:12:22]

Romney's Out, Expect Huckabee to follow. Huck was a spoiler, and McCain may just owe the nomination to him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to shore up his lack of evangelical support with a Vice President Huckabee. There may be some concern that the far right will deem them both too liberal, but then the far right would call Generalissimo Franco too much of a lefty.

As for Obama and Clinton, I expect the Clintons to get VERY ugly. It'll be slash and burn, win at all costs. The 5th was supposed to be Clinton's day. They were supposed to be the only ones with enough money to compete in 22 states at once. Unfortunately for her Obama has been outraising her. Word came out yesterday that she had loaned the campaign 5 million of her own dollars, and it is a little unclear how much of that, if any, is counted in the 13 million she says she raised in January. For comparison Obama raised 30+ million dollars in January. Now these aren't FEC filings so the numbers may be fast and loose. In fact they could be total lies, but it would be dumb since it'll be public Mar. 31. Anyway, nasty attacks have a way of making both sides look bad, and turning off voters particularly voters who believe a candidate is a different kind of candidate (reads: Obama voters)

Of note is the fact that Obama has done really well in caucuses, a weird form of voting that favors candidates with a devoted and energetic following. In a primary anybody can vote, and it usually only takes a few minutes. In a caucus you have to show up at a specific time, hang out, divide into groups, and try to convince others to come around to your line of thinking. It tends to disenfranchise older, more feeble voters, who prefer mail in ballots, or quick vote and get it over with types.

There are two ways of looking at Obama's dominating a caucus: They probably don't have that much support in the state as a whole, but the support they have is enthusiastic enough to spend 1-3 hours voting.

There'll be time for a critique of both candidates later, but here's the thumbnail view. Clinton continues to do well with Latinos and old people. Obama does well upper middle class voters, middle class blacks, and has recently shown quite a bit of appeal with white men, a group the Dems tend to lose.

One thing I was thinking as I was watching results come in. Wow John McCain, the presumptive GOP candidate wins a lot of "blue states", and Obama wins a lot of "red states". I doubt it will be this way in a general election, but it does raise the possibility that these two could significantly reshape the race for the presidency. Still waiting on final results from NM, where Clinton is up 1123 votes at the moment.

A memo from the Obama campaign accidentally leaked today identifying that they believe they will have a small margin of delegates, but not enough to win over Clinton (without Florida and Michigan). Florida and Michigan are going to loom large over the convention, as will the superdelegates. I certainly hope the sham election we had (where everyone fully expected it to not matter at all, and no candidate but Clinton was on the ballot) doesn't decide who the winner is. This thing needs to wrap up before the convention, and hopefully without the superdelegates. If they decided the nominee it'll likely be Clinton, since Bill Clinton got most of them into their offices. It will seem like the bad old days of machine politics and smoke-filled rooms if that happens, not good. Here's to a victor soon.

Seth Kramer [02.07.2008 14:31:06]

Huck's still in. When a reporter asked why he still tries when even if he takes all the rest of the states by 10%, he would still lose, he said, "I didn't major in Math".

a common enemy [02.11.2008 04:49:10]
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