Ahead of the Potomac Primaries

Posted by Seth Kramer on Monday, February 11th 2008 at 11:46pm



Tuesday marks the Potomac primaries: Virginia, Maryland, and DC all vote. Polls indicate Obama is leading in each of them. That coupled with the fact that he's won Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana, the Virgin Islands, and Maine all by sizable margins means he's leading in pledged delegates, and catching up on Clinton's previous lead in pledged + super delegates. If he takes Hawai'i, as he is expected to do, and Wisconsin (which Clinton considers competitive--although she thought Maine was competitive too, and Obama has the support of their Governor) that would deal a serious blow to camp Clinton. Their firewall as of now is Ohio and Texas. Chock-a-block with blue collar Dems, and Latinos, Clinton's bread and butter, the only way she stays competitive is to run up the score in those two states, that of course assumes she isn't steamrolled by the momentum of a 10-in-a-row victory by Obama. It should be noted that the Texas and Ohio primaries are 22 days away; a lifetime in politics, and as long as Obama's winning, her news dries up.

Clinton's campaign manager stepped down the other day. She was not fired, she stepped down. This serves two purposes, it gives Clinton's campaign a fresh approach from someone else, and it buys her time. She can simply respond to the upcoming Obama victories by saying, "Well, you know, he was expected to win, and we're retooling our campaign right now, you have to expect that while the new campaign manager is learning the ropes..."

Another issue hanging in the air is an Edwards endorsement. Both camps are meeting with Edwards about a possible endorsement deal. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I really can't see Edwards endorsing Clinton. Stranger things have happened, but the issues he flogged like a rented mule ("daddy and his miiiiiill", corporate influence in politics, lobbyists and Political Action Committees, etc) are par for the course with the Clintons--witness HillPAC. The only thing she's got going for her is her health care package, which was virtually identical to Edwards'.

Another interesting turn of events is Huckabee's potential lawsuit over the Washington caucus. Apparently, down by 242 votes, the state party decided to stop counting the remaining 1500 votes. There is significant backlash in the GOP against McCain, and it would seem that Huckabee is the benefactor. He's probably officially reached the "pissing us off" stage with the McCain campaign. Now it's more about building a movement for the 2012 elections (yeah, it's already started people.)

There are also mumblings about the veepstakes. As each Huckabee success weakens McCain it's going to decrease the likelihood of a Huckabee Veep. Though McCain vehemently denies he would pick a running mate for geographic reasons, there is some talk about the Republican Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist. He's popular, he's from a purple state, a little ethnic (Greek Cypriot), and as we've come to expect from a Republican, there have been rumors of homosexuality for quite some time. This would definitely make Coulter blow her top, but it could be a smart move. It would force the Dems to pick someone from Ohio or Pennsylvania to secure another corresponding block of purple state voters. Plus it could risk that Obama's voters wouldn't back Clinton without Obama on the ticket, or that Clinton's voters might not support Obama without Clinton on the ticket. Brilliantly divisive (a la Rove), but that doesn't strike me as McCain's style. But that's just one man's opinion about one possible running mate.

Strategies for Obama

(Rove type strategy) DIVISIVE! Beat down Clinton's superdelegates talk by pointing out she's hoping to win the contest based upon a bunch of party insiders that likely got there thanks to her husband. If the nomination comes down to superdelegates, this is would be the nuclear option. It's preemptively striking at a weak spot in the primary system. The superdelegates are there for two reasons, (1) avoid a floor fight by picking a winner, (2) prevent the activists who vote in the primaries from picking a candidate too far outside the mainstream to get elected. Number 1 is all we're really concerned about here. If he did this it would be the 1968 Democratic convention all over again.

Stick in the knife! First conquer, Wisconsin. It's the only "Clinton state where the expectations are low. Sink a bunch of people and money into Wisconsin and win. Then focus on Ohio. It's probably the easiest state for Obama to win out of Ohio and Texas. There are large black populations in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Toledo, and Dayton. There is a large student population, and there's a minuscule Latino population, a group he's had little success with. To keep Clinton from running up the score send Ted Kennedy down to Texas to talk to the Latinos, and hammer the final nail in her coffin. Without one of these two states she's toast. Her "pledged" delegates start running for the doors as Obama locks down the nomination. Of course, as I said earlier, that's 22 days away so anything could happen.

Point out the disaster that Clinton would be to down-ticket races. If Dems want to win some of the 22 Republican Senate seats up for grabs this year, and more of the Republican House seats, Clinton puts those in jeopardy, by unifying the Republicans who are already pretty bummed about McCain being their nominee.

Strategies for Clinton

Play the expectations game. Set the bar so low you're likely to trip over it, and no victory of Obama's should be recognized. Well of course Obama won the South, he has tremendous support in the black community. And red states don't matter because they weren't going to vote for us anyway, and caucuses don't matter because they're not primaries, and small states don't matter because they're not big states, etc. Raise or donate enough money to win something, anything (Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Virginia--okay that ships probably sailed but the first two may be competitive) just stop the bleeding.

Don't talk about how you're "the best candidate to take on McCain in the fall." Every poll has Obama beating McCain by about 5 points more than you. Find some other talking point

Last thought

Clinton's pledged delegate total: 924
Obama's pledged delegate total: 986
Pledged Delegates still up for grabs in primaries: 1250 (including Guam, Democrats Abroad, Puerto Rico, and Washington DC)

Given the proportional nature of the Democratic races, the likelihood that either of them gets the 1100 or 1050 necessary to win the nomination without the superdelegates, is pretty low. If the super delegates have to decide this thing (and I think they will) and there is no obvious winner (I hope there will be, but I worry there will not be) all hell is going to break loose. We may be approaching time for someone to take running mate as a way to keep the party from damaging itself so much McCain walks away with it. This could be a very scary game of chicken.

It'll be interesting to see how the next 22 days play out.