SethKramer.com

A President Who Challenges Me

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 11:36:26 -0400

I've beat on Bush pretty hard over the last 7.5 years, but I saw this quote from his press conference yesterday. Maybe it was the smart thing to say politically, maybe he didn't want to look like Jimmy Carter telling Americans to turn down the thermostat, etc, but it does disappoint me that our presidents have ceased to ask us for even a moment of discomfort.

John F. Kennedy famously said "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country." That, for me, captures the essence of what it means to be an American. Our nation is, in the parlance of business, a joint venture not a sole proprietorship.

Our president and legislature set an vision for our nation and the judiciary makes sure that vision conforms with the existing ideals of our state. But none of this could happen without the consent of the governed, and the American people holding up their end of the bargain.

For too long we have come to expect much for very little. The "me" generation has convinced itself and successive generations that we can better ourselves through selfishness and the expectation that we are owed something because we just so damned special.

The above statement, and Bush's "go to the mall" remark after 9/11 represent missed opportunities to call the citizens to action at a time when they want to do anything they can to help, regardless of party affiliation or ideology.

The Republicans may want to put their fingers in their ears and say "la, la, la, la", but global warming is a very serious problem that, left unaddressed will reap grave consequences.

Likewise the Democrats may wish to sweep aside the issues with Social Security and Medicare, but they are in serious danger of exploding our deficit in the coming decades.

Every moment we fail to address these very real problems they become larger and more complex.

I will say that I am immensely pleased that both major party candidates recognize the value in again asking us to give of ourselves to remake our country. McCain talks about "devotion to a cause greater than self", and Obama says that he asks us "to believe not just in my ability to bring real change to Washington...I'm asking you to believe in yours."

While I obviously have my own personal opinion in who would better move us beyond the petty behaviors of the "me" generation, I take comfort in the fact that they both understand our current situation. They recognize we are ready, willing, and able to inherit the good, bad, and ugly of our country, to serve her with honor whether in military service, community service, or putting ourselves to work as teachers, engineers, construction workers, or bus drivers each doing our small bit to meet the needs of our community, state, and nation.

It is a great shame Mr. Bush chose to squander his opportunity to do so.

Tank Man

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 22:57:50 -0400

I've seen innumerable posts about RFK's assassination today, and he was certainly a man whose memory ought to be preserved, but I want to remember another event from our recent history: a nameless man who had indescribable courage and became a symbol for freedom's cause.

Let me first make clear this is not an anti-China screed. China has done, and continues to do, a lot of things wrong, but they've undeniably made significant progress in the last 20 years. This post is not about China as much as the power of a single man to affect change the world over. It is meant to empower those who feel that "one person can't make a difference".

By early June 1989 unrest began to foment in the People's Republic of China, resulting in students, labor leaders, intellectuals, and others flooding into the streets to protest the authoritarian response to earlier protests in April and May. Soldiers were trucked in to stop these protests, and the first wave of soldiers was overwhelmed by the people. Seas of men, women and children blocked the roads, and showered every kindness upon these soldiers.

When first efforts failed, the Chinese goverment ordered martial law and new troops were ordered into the city, blocking major exits, and fighting their way to the city center. Combat troops, with live ammunition, heavy artillery and orders to clear Tiananmen Square by the morning. These troops ordered the protesters out of the streets, and eventually when they failed to do so, opened fire.

As innocent civilian protestors were gunned down, student leaders were cornered and eventually decided to leave the square, but they would be back. Parents frantic to find missing children went running in and out of the square looking for the dead and injured, medical personnel trying to clear the square of bodies, were fired upon.

By June 5th it was clear the government had used it's firepower effectively, cowing the protesters into submission.

It was in this atmosphere that one man, known only to the world as Tank Man stood before a column of tanks on the road into the Forbidden City (Ironically named the Great Avenue of Everlasting Peace), waving them away.

As horrified students and journalists anticipated his sudden death beneath the tank treads, he climbed onto the tank and shouted at the driver. Surely he would be killed, the crowd thought. The tank had attempted to go around him, but he jumped in front of it again. This man was determined to stop the destruction of his city and his people. He would eventually be carted away by unknown persons.

What is also unknown what happened to Tank Man. He is an enigma. Perhaps he was imprisoned by the subsequent crackdown on resistance leaders. Perhaps he's living quietly in Beijing today. What is known is the effect this image would have on other resistance movements the world over. The Velvet Revolution later that year, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and so on. People the world over site this picture, this act, as inspiration for their acts of civil disobedience. This man's single act changed the world. Think about that next time someone tells you that "you can't make a difference".

Remember the power of one man, one woman, one student, one worker today, the 19th anniversary of Tank Man.

Bring Out Your Dead!

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Thu, 08 May 2008 14:23:15 -0400

I've been super-duper busy the last few days (weeks). But I thought I'd drop a few lines here. Clinton's campaign is dead, but she'll probably hang on to let Obama make a fool of her in Oregon at least. She's got no more money, loaned herself a total of 11.4 million so far, but her supporters still believe she's in the running. They sort of remind me of the shopkeep in this sketch:

It has ceased to be!

Or maybe you feel otherwise, Maybe it's more like this one:

Either way, she'll be stone dead in a moment.

In unrelated news I'm back to finishing off my Microsoft certifications, and I'm doing a lot of spring cleaning in the apartment. More to come

Obama Veepstakes Conjecture Post

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 15:45:50 -0400

It's pretty clear to all but the Clinton campaign that Obama will be the Democratic nominee. So I'd like to throw out my top 10 VP candidates.

1. Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - Hagel wants it like a dog wants a bone, and he very possibly delivers Nebraska and maybe a handful of traditionally red square states. It's very "out of the box" and I think it'd win over Independants like you wouldn't believe. It could be a hard sell to the base, but lets face it as long as your guy is at the top of the ticket does it matter? I don't think it's likely since I suspect he's going to have to kiss up to the women who feel it was "Hillary's turn".

2. Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) - Mollifies the more reasonable disaffected women. I don't think she wins AZ since it's been McCain's turf for longer, but she definately puts the west in play. Colorado and New Mexico turn purple.

3. Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) - Shores up any perceived foreign policy issues, and he's a beer-drinkin' good ole boy from Virginia. He may deliver on those downscale white male voters that have been so difficult to win over. Again, contingent upon whether women become a big problem for Obama after Clinton inevitably loses.

4. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA) - Popular moderate son of a popular moderate Governor. Pro-life Catholic easily delivers a purple state. Doesn't answer the experience issues terribly well, and an all-male ticket may put off some of the Clinton ladies if her exit is not, shall we say gentle.

5. Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) - Dem. Governor with the highest approval rating in the nation clocking in at over 70 percent. I know he's going to deliver all 3 of Montana's electoral votes, whoopdie-doo, but again. Western, moderate, appeals to the voters Obama's struggled with. Downside: women, experience

6. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-MN) - I don't know that anyone's talking about Feingold, he's an incredibly principled leader, could stem the tide on any Jewish vote loss thanks to Pastor SaysSomeCrazyShit. He's probably too far to the left, but it'd make my little heart go pitter pat.

7. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) - Probably can't swing Kansas. She does have appeal to former Clinton voters, and Independents, but I don't see where she adds much value to the ticket.

8. Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) - This would be a base political move. Delivering a key swing state, but the guy is an inexperienced lightweight in my not so humble opinion.

9. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) - Delivers a swing state, and again could bring women angry that Clinton isn't the nominee into the fold, but she's only been in the Senate since '06 so she really doesn't help him when it comes to experience. Plus 2 points for being a moderate.

10. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) - Will win NM, and could put other western states in play, and should deliver Latinos. He's a bore on the campaign trail, and he only further aggravates Obama's issues with white downscale voters (who lets be honest about aren't voting against him for "policy reasons". I'll leave it at that and let you fill in the blanks.)

What about you? Hate my picks? Have some of your own ideas throw 'em down in the comments.

Change of Philosophy

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 12:44:57 -0400

Since the day I first registered my domain 6 years ago, I wanted to make my site a labor of love. Every line of code was mine. Sure, it's not much to look at (I'm not a designer,) but it was mine, and I was responsible for it all: good, bad, and ugly. I made a personal pledge that I would never place paid advertising on my website, but I may (as you may have noticed) be a full-throated advocate for causes, candidates, websites, books, movies, and services I believed in.

This was the abiding philosophical principle that guided the development of my site for more than 6 years.

You may have noticed a proliferation of comment spam in the past few months. I have attempted to fight it with a couple of different Turing tests. I have since decided that in order for me to continue to devote more of my limited spare time to my actual goal of continuing to blog I would use an existing test. I tend to not be wild about using other people's software on my site, but if it works, reCAPTCHA will be worth its (in my opinion) excessively bulky include. On top of that, reCAPTCHA has a social objective I agree with: It assists with the digitization of books. Every answer successfully entered will decode one computer unrecognizeable word. For more information on how reCAPTCHA works visit their Learn More page.

This marks a major change of philosophy for me. If I find it successful, I may address another bugaboo of mine: my search box, which is crap. I have avoided using Google site search because of ads, but that may change in the coming months.

Here's to an expanding worldview. Let me know if this bothers you, fair reader, in the comments. PS. If the CAPTCHA bothers you that much, you could aways just get an account.

What'd I miss?

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 10:39:16 -0400

Wow so much happened and I was completely overwhelmed. So lets review the topics I missed. If you are in possession of a television set and ear drums you heard the Jeremiah Wright statements played ad nausem on the networks. I do believe on one particular day Fox News replaced the O'Really Factor with an hour long tape loop of Pastor Wright's greatest hits. One would never know the difference between the two anyway.

In order to address Wright's remarks Sen. Obama gave a speech on race invoking his rich Wonderbread eatin' white heritage, and his equally rich (I can't go there and we both know why) African heritage. The speech was well recieved by the pundit class, the only people who have time to listen to a 40 minute long speech. They took it to heart how we shouldn't sieze opportunities to divide one another by race, but work together to achieve a "more perfect union". The pundits then promptly began to disect the racial break down of the votes in Ohio and Texas and concluded that he has a problem with poor white men--my two cents, it's more likely they have a problem with him.

Then Obama went on vacation for a couple of days. In the interim Sen. Clinton told a great story about how she landed a flight on an aircraft carrier in the middle of the night, while taking sniper fire, then she swam to the shores of Bosnia while carrying Sinbad (The Comedian not The Sailor) and Chelsea (Her daughter, not the football club) on her back (Note: this is funnier if you know that Bosnia is landlocked. See? Reread it, I'll wait). Turns out that may have been a slight exaggeration, but everything was fixed when she simply explained she'd "misspoke". A few days later Sen. Clinton tried the old "Bosnia, what bosnia? Did somebody say something about that pastor?" trick, and it didn't work.

Then Democrats started to agonize over how long this race it taking and try to come up with a billion different ways to say "Hill, sweetheart, it ain't gonna happen." Michigan and Florida floated ideas about voting, but when it came down to it there really wasn't any consensus in the states, let alone from the two candidates. Florida thought it would be a great idea to do a mail-in vote. Democrats the world over were understandably a little itchy about a state like Florida getting creative when it comes to voting.

In the end there likely won't be a revote, and the candidates will have to come up with some way to seat the delegates in a fashion that makes them completely inconsequential because Florida and Michigan are incapable of following simple instructions.

Florida: The endless turn-signal state

Now Dems are thinking there's really no point to these contests but we have to let them vote otherwise they feel stupid and unimportant like they would in any other primary that didn't last 9 months. Superdelegates are watching the candidates club the hell out of each other while McCain raises money and tries not to die.

Speaking of McCain he had a little booboo the other day when he said Iran was training Al-Qaeda and sending them into Iraq. Other than the fact that Al-Qaeda is about 2% of our problem in Iraq. There's a larger issue: Iran is a Shia theocracy. Al-Qaeda are radical Sunnis. Sort of like saying Northern Ireland was training radical Protestants to go disrupt the Catholic church. He was quickly corrected by his best buddy in warmongering, Joe "I sound like the father from ALF" Lieberman. Then he accidentally equated Purim, one of the High Holy Days, with Halloween. Note to Sen. McCain: Jews. Not so wild about the Pagan holidays. Mmmkay? Still at least he didn't say Easter.

Separated at birth

But this probably didn't get much press because the media were too busy stuffing their faces at McCain's BBQ. To the extent that they're paying attention at all, they're far more interested in implosion of the Democratic party because Hillary Clintabee doesn't know when to gracefully step aside. Sen. Leahy tried to nudge her along the other day, and it was not appreciated. Hey, at least she didn't tell him to go f--- himself. So what if she has no hope? By God she's going to stay in just as long as she can to take Obama down a few pegs in hopes of making him lose, and running again in 2012. Bad news, Dems hate losers. You lose the nomination, you lose the presidency. We don't tend to want to see you again. Sorry Hillary. This is probably your only chance, and Democrats will remember you as the woman with the relentless ego who put self above party and nation. Congrats! Here's to Supreme Court Justice Phil McGraw!

Oyez, oyez, oyez! God save the United States and this honorable court indeed!

Year 5

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 23:32:23 -0400

3992 troops dead
countless injured
who knows how many Iraqis.

If you still need to buy a gift the traditional 5th anniversary gift is wood.

*sigh*

Has Geraldine Ferraro Lost Her Goddamn Mind?

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 01:41:48 -0400

You may or may not have heard the recent remarks by three-term Queens County Congresswoman, and one time Vice Presidential Nominee Geraldine Ferraro, but they were so surprising that I was awoken from my slumber of quasi-depression at Senator Clinton's insistence that she is a viable candidate to the detriment of the party I had to blog this.

So take it away crazylady:

"If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept."

Now that is a gaffe. I'm sure Senator Obama was counting his lucky stars that he was born a black man to a teenage mother. It doubtless opened SOOOO many doors, being the child of an interracial marriage in the 1960s. But that alone is not the end of it. Oh no. After Ferraro made this jaw-dropping statement to a California paper Senator Clinton's usual integrity-laden response was "eh, whatever.". Okay the actual quote was "I do not agree with that." Courageous response, Senator, truly courageous.

But then, to make matters worse, Ferraro felt the need to clarify after the utter shock at her remarks.

"Any time anybody does anything that in any way pulls this campaign down and says let's address reality and the problems we're facing in this world, you're accused of being racist, so you have to shut up," Ferraro said. "Racism works in two different directions. I really think they're attacking me because I'm white. How's that?"

What the fuck have you been smoking? Seriously, you felt saying what is essentially "they're only voting for him because he's black" "address[ed] the problems we're facing in this world"? Is there a huge problem of black people acquiring too much power? 'cause I must have missed that particular geopolitical trend. And that ending, wow! I haven't heard anything that unhinged since Rush Limbaugh briefly commentated for Monday Night Football.

Still I expect Sen. Clinton to have her typical response. As she's done with her taxes, the presidential library donations, the presidential library documents, etc. she'll completely ignore it and pretend that her fundraising committee isn't higher than a kite.

But still this is bad for Sen. Clinton. I don't think she wants the image of Ferraro popping up in association with her campaign. No matter how popular she is/was in Queens, it reminds us all of the efficacy of President Mondale's administration.

Add to that the trouble for another superdelegate of hers, Eliot Spitzer, going down in a sex scandal, and of course the subsequent reminders of the whole ordeal with her husband and Lewinsky, aren't a great juxtaposition.

It's now time for Obama to strike back. Not in some sleezy way, but just point out "this is how the Clintons do business." Remind the democratic party that while there were good times, the Clintons also brought some sleezy politics. No need to mention the Chinese fundraising (See also: Norman Hsu), pardons that likely led to donations for the Clinton Library (See also: Mark Rich), Travelgate, Whitewater, etc.

Last but not least, return to the message of change, and stress that change doesn't occur with the same cast of characters. Talk about the damage she does to downticket races by mobilizing conservative voters who are demoralized by the GOP picking McCain as their candidate.

Oh, and I forgot to mention Obama won Mississippi 61/37. As counting continues it appears he may have picked up more delegates out of Texas and California than originally thought. According to MSNBC as of 1:30 AM his delegate count is 1394 to her 1242, a net lead of 152 delegates.

State count: Obama 29 (including Dems Abroad, DC, and Virgin Islands), Clinton 15 (including American Samoa)

Up next: Pennsylvania (April 22), Guam (May 3), Indiana (May 6), North Carolina (May 6), Nebraska (May 13), West Virginia (May 13), Kentucky (May 20), Oregon (May 20), Montana (June 3), South Dakota (June 3), Puerto Rico (June 7).

Longest race EVAR!

UPDATE:
Check out this video. h/t Andrew Sullivan

Ahead of the Potomac Primaries

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:46:37 -0500

Tuesday marks the Potomac primaries: Virginia, Maryland, and DC all vote. Polls indicate Obama is leading in each of them. That coupled with the fact that he's won Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana, the Virgin Islands, and Maine all by sizable margins means he's leading in pledged delegates, and catching up on Clinton's previous lead in pledged + super delegates. If he takes Hawai'i, as he is expected to do, and Wisconsin (which Clinton considers competitive--although she thought Maine was competitive too, and Obama has the support of their Governor) that would deal a serious blow to camp Clinton. Their firewall as of now is Ohio and Texas. Chock-a-block with blue collar Dems, and Latinos, Clinton's bread and butter, the only way she stays competitive is to run up the score in those two states, that of course assumes she isn't steamrolled by the momentum of a 10-in-a-row victory by Obama. It should be noted that the Texas and Ohio primaries are 22 days away; a lifetime in politics, and as long as Obama's winning, her news dries up.

Clinton's campaign manager stepped down the other day. She was not fired, she stepped down. This serves two purposes, it gives Clinton's campaign a fresh approach from someone else, and it buys her time. She can simply respond to the upcoming Obama victories by saying, "Well, you know, he was expected to win, and we're retooling our campaign right now, you have to expect that while the new campaign manager is learning the ropes..."

Another issue hanging in the air is an Edwards endorsement. Both camps are meeting with Edwards about a possible endorsement deal. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I really can't see Edwards endorsing Clinton. Stranger things have happened, but the issues he flogged like a rented mule ("daddy and his miiiiiill", corporate influence in politics, lobbyists and Political Action Committees, etc) are par for the course with the Clintons--witness HillPAC. The only thing she's got going for her is her health care package, which was virtually identical to Edwards'.

Another interesting turn of events is Huckabee's potential lawsuit over the Washington caucus. Apparently, down by 242 votes, the state party decided to stop counting the remaining 1500 votes. There is significant backlash in the GOP against McCain, and it would seem that Huckabee is the benefactor. He's probably officially reached the "pissing us off" stage with the McCain campaign. Now it's more about building a movement for the 2012 elections (yeah, it's already started people.)

There are also mumblings about the veepstakes. As each Huckabee success weakens McCain it's going to decrease the likelihood of a Huckabee Veep. Though McCain vehemently denies he would pick a running mate for geographic reasons, there is some talk about the Republican Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist. He's popular, he's from a purple state, a little ethnic (Greek Cypriot), and as we've come to expect from a Republican, there have been rumors of homosexuality for quite some time. This would definitely make Coulter blow her top, but it could be a smart move. It would force the Dems to pick someone from Ohio or Pennsylvania to secure another corresponding block of purple state voters. Plus it could risk that Obama's voters wouldn't back Clinton without Obama on the ticket, or that Clinton's voters might not support Obama without Clinton on the ticket. Brilliantly divisive (a la Rove), but that doesn't strike me as McCain's style. But that's just one man's opinion about one possible running mate.

Strategies for Obama

(Rove type strategy) DIVISIVE! Beat down Clinton's superdelegates talk by pointing out she's hoping to win the contest based upon a bunch of party insiders that likely got there thanks to her husband. If the nomination comes down to superdelegates, this is would be the nuclear option. It's preemptively striking at a weak spot in the primary system. The superdelegates are there for two reasons, (1) avoid a floor fight by picking a winner, (2) prevent the activists who vote in the primaries from picking a candidate too far outside the mainstream to get elected. Number 1 is all we're really concerned about here. If he did this it would be the 1968 Democratic convention all over again.

Stick in the knife! First conquer, Wisconsin. It's the only "Clinton state where the expectations are low. Sink a bunch of people and money into Wisconsin and win. Then focus on Ohio. It's probably the easiest state for Obama to win out of Ohio and Texas. There are large black populations in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Toledo, and Dayton. There is a large student population, and there's a minuscule Latino population, a group he's had little success with. To keep Clinton from running up the score send Ted Kennedy down to Texas to talk to the Latinos, and hammer the final nail in her coffin. Without one of these two states she's toast. Her "pledged" delegates start running for the doors as Obama locks down the nomination. Of course, as I said earlier, that's 22 days away so anything could happen.

Point out the disaster that Clinton would be to down-ticket races. If Dems want to win some of the 22 Republican Senate seats up for grabs this year, and more of the Republican House seats, Clinton puts those in jeopardy, by unifying the Republicans who are already pretty bummed about McCain being their nominee.

Strategies for Clinton

Play the expectations game. Set the bar so low you're likely to trip over it, and no victory of Obama's should be recognized. Well of course Obama won the South, he has tremendous support in the black community. And red states don't matter because they weren't going to vote for us anyway, and caucuses don't matter because they're not primaries, and small states don't matter because they're not big states, etc. Raise or donate enough money to win something, anything (Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Virginia--okay that ships probably sailed but the first two may be competitive) just stop the bleeding.

Don't talk about how you're "the best candidate to take on McCain in the fall." Every poll has Obama beating McCain by about 5 points more than you. Find some other talking point

Last thought

Clinton's pledged delegate total: 924
Obama's pledged delegate total: 986
Pledged Delegates still up for grabs in primaries: 1250 (including Guam, Democrats Abroad, Puerto Rico, and Washington DC)

Given the proportional nature of the Democratic races, the likelihood that either of them gets the 1100 or 1050 necessary to win the nomination without the superdelegates, is pretty low. If the super delegates have to decide this thing (and I think they will) and there is no obvious winner (I hope there will be, but I worry there will not be) all hell is going to break loose. We may be approaching time for someone to take running mate as a way to keep the party from damaging itself so much McCain walks away with it. This could be a very scary game of chicken.

It'll be interesting to see how the next 22 days play out.

Super Tuesday Prognostications

seth@sethkramer.com (Seth Kramer) — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 00:14:08 -0500

Super Tuesday

Below are my predictions for the uberPrimary tomorrow. The vagaries of the proportional representation along congressional district lines, the uncertainty of caucuses, and the already proven inability of polling data to indicate what's going on aside this is how I see it going down. Bear in mind that it's entirely possible that a candidate can lose the state popular vote, but win or tie the delegate race (see also Nevada, New Hampshire). That said, I didn't try to add that dynamic to my estimates. I will not just be wrong. I will be WILDLY wrong, but I wanted to get my guesses down so everyone can mock me when I'm inevitably off by a factor of 10. So without further ado...

Delegate splits are (Obama/Clinton)

Alabama (60 delegates) - Most recent polls show Clinton winning this, but Obama has the edge with the black vote. I expect a high turn out and an Obama victory. (33/27)

Alaska (18 delegates) - Tough call, it's a caucus, and nobody bothers to poll in the great white tundra that is Alaska. Judges say, "Who cares?" I'd give the edge to Obama, he seems to do well in caucuses. (11/7)

American Samoa (9 delegates) - It's a caucus, and a diverse state. Obama victory (5/4)

Arizona (67 delegates) - Tossup. Tossups favor the national leader. Clinton (30/37)

Arkansas (47 delegates) - Clinton's home state. Clinton. (20/27)

California (441 delegates) - Clinton's had the edge, but it's a tossup in recent polls. If Obama won this it'd be an upset. I don't expect an upset. Clinton by a nose. (211/230)

Colorado (71 delegates) � Tossup, but it has been edging toward Obama. (37/34)

Connecticut (60 delegates) - New York Neighbor. Clinton should win this. But Obama's giving her a run for her money. (27/33)

Democrats Abroad Global Primary (11 delegates) - The first internet primary. Seems like Obama gets a lot of fawning coverage (more so than even in the US) in the foreign media. Obama (7/4)

Delaware (23 delegates) - Close race, and both candidates are spending a lot of time here for some strange reason. It's barely worth the time. Clinton. (10/13)

Georgia (103 delegates) - Strong black vote. Obama (58/45).

Idaho (23 delegates) - Caucus favors Obama. Also he has the support of the former governor Cecil Andrus. (13/10)

Illinois (185 delegates) - Obama's home state. Expect a Clinton ass-kicking. (133/52)

Kansas (41 delegates) - Caucus, Obama endorsed by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Obama (23/18)

Massachusetts (121 delegates) - Clinton type state, but the Kennedy endorsements help a lot. Clinton wins anyway (57/64)

Minnesota (88 delegates) - Caucus, Obama is being played up as the reincarnation of former Senator Paul Wellstone, who tragically died in a plane crash. (47/41)

Missouri (88 delegates) - Clinton has an edge in the polls. Obama has the endorsement of Claire McCaskill. Should be a good bellwether race. Clinton wins. (43/45)

New Jersey (127 delegates) - Client state of New York. Clinton should win handily. (53/74)

New Mexico (38 delegates) - Clinton (17/21)

New York (281 delegates) - Clinton's other home state. (122/159)

North Dakota (21 delegates) - Caucus, Obama has the support of a lot of the state legislature. Obama (12/9)

Oklahoma (47 delegates) - Clinton has the endorsement of the former Democratic governor David Walters, but Obama does well in rural states. Still I expect a Clinton victory. (21/26)

Tennessee (85 delegates) - Clinton has a clear edge in the polling here. (40/45)

Utah (29 delegates) - Rural, which gives an edge to Obama. Kind of a tossup. I'll say Clinton (23/26) [Update: I meant (13/16)]

Net Result in my scenario? Obama gets 1053 delegates, Clinton 1051. My gut tells me that Clinton will collect more delegates than Obama, but that's how my math works out. We'll see.

Given those results, there's no clear winner of the day, and of course the primaries continue. The states after Super Tuesday?

Starting Saturday, Louisiana (large black population, though less so after Katrina), Nebraska (Where Obama is endorsed by Ben Nelson, a popular Democratic Senator), Washington (No idea, probably Clinton by 5%), Virgin Islands (Obama).

Then a caucus in Maine in Sunday. Clinton by about 7%.

Then Tuesday, DC (OBAMA! Huge black population), Virginia (Obama endorsed by Sen. Jim Webb), Maryland (large black population, Obama).

The following Tuesday, Hawai'i (Obama's birth state, big win), Wisconsin (tossup). After that we're into March.

My point? If Obama can hold on by his fingernails through Super Tuesday, he should clean up in delegates the rest of the month.

We'll see. I hope to be live blogging the results from my hotel.

Oh and if your curious to know who wins the Republican primary, it's John McCain. Rush Limbaugh can piss and moan all he wants, but that's who they're getting. It'll be interesting to see if they knuckle under and take him, or if they tear their own party apart because they can't find anyone of sufficient ideological purity.